Okay, time for my iPhone prediction. Yeah, so I’m not a marketing pundit per se, but can’t resist getting in on Seth Godin’s challenge, especially with all the hype surrounding the iPhone.
I think it’s a matter of how much Apple expects from the iPhone. The way it’s being hyped up and marketed, it seems almost as if it’s being built up to be as dominating as the iPod. I have no doubt it will sell quite a few copies, especially initially, but I don’t think it’ll ever reach the heights of the iPod.
As for the iPhone itself, I think it’s a great product with revolutionary technologies. But in itself, it’s not a revolutionary product. It isn’t really a new curve. It’s a huge leap in cell phone technology, but it isn’t a new curve.
So what’s my prediction? For once I disagree with Seth Godin. I think it will be the platform for future development, and initially it will sell a lot, but sales will stabilise after that. It will never fade away completely, but I think it will go the way of the Mac. It will be a product that spurs the whole market forward, but will not dominate the market in the long run. I think it will end up as a specialist product, with a limited share of the whole cell phone market. I doubt it will ever truly reach the masses with the force that they want it to. And in that sense, it will fail.
Yep. That’s my take. Risky – betting against Jobs and Apple is always risky – but well, let’s see how it turns out.